Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has warned that the U.S. and China are “on the brink of war” and “are beyond the ability to talk.” The billionaire added that their relations “are getting so bad” that U.S.-China trade could collapse. He cautioned that the next 18 months “will be a very risky period.”
U.S. and China on the Brink of War, Says Dalio
Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest asset manager, Bridgewater Associates, warned in a Linkedin post, published Wednesday, that the U.S. and China are on the brink of war. The billionaire, who has visited China for almost 40 years and has built close friendships there, shared his perspectives from his recent 13-day trips to China, as well as from meetings with Chinese citizens, experts on China residing outside the country, and policymakers in other countries, including the U.S.
Regarding U.S.-China relations, Dalio stressed:
The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk.
He noted that the two nations appear to be “close to having a sanctions war and/or military war that neither side wants.”
Dalio clarified: “I want to emphasize that by saying that they are on the brink, I don’t mean to say that they will necessarily go over the brink. I mean to say that they are very close to crossing red lines that, if crossed, will irrevocably push them over the brink into some type of war that damages these two countries and causes damage to the world order in severe and irrevocable ways — like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did for Russia and the world, just much bigger.”
Next 18 Months ‘Very Risky’ for China and U.S.
The Bridgewater Associates founder cautioned that the next 18 months will be very risky for China and the U.S. Noting that “The hawkish political influences in the United States will exert more pressure on the relationship over the next 18 months because of the emergence of the 2024 election season,” Dalio opined:
That will be a very risky period because China and the U.S. are now already on the brink of war.
“The political timetable of the election cycle between now and the 2024 elections in the United States and Taiwan will likely lead to more push-the-limit anti-Chinese brinksmanship from the U.S.,” he continued.
The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates added:
U.S.-China relations are getting so bad that there is reason to worry that anti-China sentiment could make doing business with China like doing business with Russia, which would lead U.S.-China trade to collapse.
“This would have similarly damaging economic consequences, though many times larger, severely hurting supply chains and trade. That would at a minimum cause severe economic consequences for the U.S., China, and the world and at a maximum could lead to military war,” he cautioned. “These conflicts are affecting most countries’ and multinational companies’ relations and how the world is operating in innumerable ways that are intensifying.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Defense revealed this week that it is focused on potential conflict with China. “We have a clear strategy that’s focused on China,” the deputy secretary of defense told Bloomberg. “Our focus is making sure that the PRC [People’s Republic of China] leadership wakes up every day and says, ‘Today is not the day to undertake aggression that threatens U.S. interests’ … That’s our focus today, in 2027, and in 2035 and 2045.”
What do you think about billionaire Ray Dalio’s warning? Do you think the U.S. and China will go to war? Let us know in the comments section below.